A new statistical analysis, based on a large sample of all mortgage applications approved and denied in recent months, offers valuable benchmarks for anyone thinking about financing a home purchase or refinancing an existing loan. The study taps into data from the loan processing software used for roughly one-fifth of all new mortgage applications nationwide, supplied by the technology firm Ellie Mae Inc.
•A FICO credit score of 764. Not only is this higher than the average score for approved loans as recently as November, it's far beyond the 620-640 FICOs that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac once considered the minimum for a conventional prime mortgage. It's also well above the median FICO score nationwide, which is currently 711, according to a spokesman for Fair Isaac Corp, developer of the score.
•A loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 78%, signifying a down payment of 22%. This is higher than even the controversial minimum of 20% proposed last year by Obama administration financial regulatory officials who were seeking a standard for "safe" loans offering the lowest available rates and best terms.
•Debt-to-income ratios of 21% for housing expenses, 34% for total household monthly debt.
How about the profiles of people who applied for conventional loans to buy a house but were rejected or didn't get to closing? By historical standards, they were a fairly impressive group on average as well, with 732 FICO scores, 19% down payments and debt-to-income ratios of 24% (housing costs) and 41% (total debt).
Homeowners who refinanced existing conventional loans had the best profiles of all: average 770 FICOs, 65% LTVs indicating 35% equity stakes, and debt-to-income ratios of 22% housing and 32% total debt.
The main alternative to conventional financing — the Federal Housing Administration — requires much smaller down payments, is more generous on credit standards and will stretch much further on debt-to-income ratios than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mainstays of the conventional marketplace.
What's the profile for success — and denial — at the FHA? You might be a little surprised.
According to Ellie Mae's data, successful applicants at the FHA had average FICO scores of 701 during February and debt-to-income ratios of 28% for housing expenses, 41% for total household monthly debt. Although the FHA accepts down payments as low as 3.5%, successful applicants threw in a bit more — an average of 5% down. People who didn't make the cut had average FICOs of 666 and 6% for down payments, and had debt ratios of 30% (housing costs) and 46% (total debt).
Successful FHA refi applicants had 722 FICOs, 12% average equity stakes and lower debt-to-income ratios than purchasers — 26% on average for housing costs, 40% for total household debt.
What to make of numbers like these? First observation: Ouch! It's "pretty pristine out there" in the mortgage market right now, said Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. Even those rejected for loans appear to have what used to be considered solid and acceptable credit-risk profiles.
It is still possible to get conventional financing with lower down payments — say, 10% or even 5% — but those loans require nearly flawless credit and come with steep private mortgage insurance premiums and add-on fees by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as stringent debt-to-income limits. For cash-short buyers with good, but not outstanding, credit scores who are looking for a low down payment alternative, FHA is the way to go, unless they qualify for VA (veterans) or USDA (rural housing) loans requiring zero down.
Another thought about the numbers: Even though the profiles of successful borrowers may look challenging to match, keep in mind that these are averages. Many home buyers make it through the application gantlet with FICO scores and debt ratios that don't quite meet the current benchmarks — often because their full financial and credit-risk pictures are good enough to get them accepted by Fannie Mae's or Freddie Mac's automated underwriting systems.
So don't fret if you don't measure up to the averages. You still may have a good shot. But know this about today's mortgage standards: They're arguably tougher than ever.
Distributed by Washington Post Writers Group.